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波蘭前副總理、北京師范大學(xué)一帶一路學(xué)院特聘教授格熱戈日·科沃德科 (Grzegorz W. Kolodko) 日前作客中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)新媒體與中國(guó)觀察智庫(kù)聯(lián)合推出的訪談節(jié)目《連線·全球政要看中國(guó)十年》，就中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展、全球化、中美和中歐關(guān)系及其他國(guó)際熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題分享了自己的觀點(diǎn)。

科沃德科指出，中國(guó)經(jīng)過(guò)幾十年的和平務(wù)實(shí)發(fā)展，成為世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要引擎，但卻招致一些西方國(guó)家的敵意。美國(guó)近年來(lái)推行一系列仇中反華政策，欲針對(duì)中國(guó)挑起“新冷戰(zhàn)”，這是歷史性的失策，非常危險(xiǎn)。他認(rèn)為，在氣候變化、經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退、移民、軍事沖突等多重共同挑戰(zhàn)的威脅下，世界不應(yīng)分裂為敵對(duì)的兩個(gè)板塊，而應(yīng)把中國(guó)和西方國(guó)家的發(fā)展倡議結(jié)合起來(lái)，協(xié)調(diào)一致促進(jìn)地區(qū)發(fā)展。今年中共二十大即將召開(kāi)，科沃德科期待這次大會(huì)能夠更好展現(xiàn)中國(guó)作為一個(gè)負(fù)責(zé)任的大國(guó)形象，更好向國(guó)際社會(huì)闡釋中國(guó)議程和中國(guó)目標(biāo)。

嘉賓：格熱戈日·科沃德科

(Grzegorz W. Kolodko)

波蘭前副總理兼財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)

華沙科茲敏斯基大學(xué)教授

北京師范大學(xué)一帶一路學(xué)院特聘教授

中國(guó)是世界發(fā)展引擎而非威脅

主持人：

讓我們首先來(lái)聊聊一些有關(guān)中國(guó)的話題。聽(tīng)說(shuō)您30年前就曾到訪中國(guó)，這些年來(lái)您看到的中國(guó)有什么變化？

Let's start with some questions about China. I heard that you first came to China about 30 years ago. What changes have you seen in all these years?

科沃德科：

我第一次來(lái)到中國(guó)是在1989年8月，時(shí)值盛夏，距離現(xiàn)在剛好是三分之一個(gè)世紀(jì)。那時(shí)的世界與如今大不相同。中國(guó)眾多的人口和遼闊的國(guó)土令我印象深刻。

My first visit to China was in the summer. It was August 1989, say exactly, a third of a century ago. And that was a different world. And I was very much impressed by the might of China in terms of the people, of the vast country.

自那以后，中國(guó)的發(fā)展日新月異。我曾數(shù)十次訪問(wèn)中國(guó)。如果回到1989年，那時(shí)的我，那時(shí)的所有人都絕對(duì)無(wú)法想象中國(guó)會(huì)取得如此驚人的發(fā)展成就。如今，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，絕對(duì)貧困在中國(guó)已經(jīng)銷聲匿跡。可以說(shuō)，中國(guó)這個(gè)世界人口第一大國(guó)取得了全人類歷史上最偉大的經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)步。這些成就令我深受震撼，這也是為什么我如此關(guān)注中國(guó)的原因。我想要更好了解中國(guó)究竟經(jīng)歷了哪些變化，這些變化是如何發(fā)生的，其他國(guó)家可以從中國(guó)的發(fā)展成就和問(wèn)題挫折中吸取哪些經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)。沒(méi)有一個(gè)國(guó)家，沒(méi)有一個(gè)地區(qū)不會(huì)在發(fā)展過(guò)程中遇到問(wèn)題。我認(rèn)為，中國(guó)的政界、學(xué)界領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人們非常清醒地認(rèn)識(shí)到了中國(guó)遇到的問(wèn)題，且正采取措施努力解決。

And since that time, the things change. I've been dozens of times to China. And if I go back to 1989, absolutely, not only myself, I think nobody at that time would expect such horrendous economic progress has occurred in China. Now due to the development there is no any extreme poverty anymore. So, China has made the greatest economic progress in the most populous country in the course of history, not only during our lifetime and I’m very much impressed by these achievements. And that is why I do pay so much attention to China to understand better what is going on, how the things happen and what are the lessons the other countries may learn from China’s success and also from certain problems and failures, which you do have in China. There is not a country; there is not a place with the luck of no problems. But I think that the political and intellectual leaders are very much aware of these problems and they are trying to address the issues.

主持人：

那么，中國(guó)的什么成就最令您印象最為深刻？是政治方面的還是經(jīng)濟(jì)方面的？

So, what is the greatest impression China has made on you, it is economic or political?

科沃德科：

我是個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，因此我首先關(guān)注經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題。

I’m an economist. And first of all, I’m taking a look into the economic matters.

首先，中國(guó)成功讓數(shù)億人擺脫貧困。我不是要拿中國(guó)和美國(guó)比較，公平來(lái)看，我們應(yīng)該拿中國(guó)與印度進(jìn)行比較。這樣比較之下，我們就能看到中國(guó)的巨大進(jìn)步。30年前，1991年，印度的人均GDP高于中國(guó)，而現(xiàn)在，中國(guó)的人均GDP至少是印度的三倍?，F(xiàn)在，中國(guó)已經(jīng)完全不存在世界銀行定義的以購(gòu)買力平價(jià)計(jì)算人均日收入不足1.9美元的絕對(duì)貧困人口了。中國(guó)已經(jīng)消除了絕對(duì)貧困，這是中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)政策的巨大成功。

First things first, China has taken off hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. I'm comparing China nt with the United States. Sometimes, also it is justifying, we should compare China with India. I'm comparing China with India. And here we see the tremendous China’s progress. While GDP per capita in India in 1991 -- 30 years ago -- was higher than that in China, now, Chinese GDP per capita is at least three times higher than it is in India. Now we do not have so-called extreme poverty measured according to the World Bank definition, $1.9 purchasing power parity per capita per day. Not at all. It's been erased. And this is the very great success of China’s economic and social policies.

這種比較以及一些其他的比較研究向我們生動(dòng)展示了中國(guó)的改革、中國(guó)的體制和經(jīng)濟(jì)政策是多么的成功。

So this comparison and some other comparative measures are telling us how successful has been the Chinese course of economic reforms, and the Chinese system with the economic policy.

主持人：

您會(huì)用什么詞語(yǔ)概括中國(guó)這十年取得的成就？

What words would you use to summarize China’s economic achievements in the last 10 years?

科沃德科：

我認(rèn)為過(guò)去十年，中國(guó)的國(guó)際地位發(fā)生了不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的重大變化。現(xiàn)在，中國(guó)是世界經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的引擎之一，在政治和軍事領(lǐng)域也躋身強(qiáng)國(guó)行列，但并沒(méi)有給世界帶來(lái)任何負(fù)面影響，也沒(méi)有逆轉(zhuǎn)全球化的趨勢(shì)。然而，對(duì)于中國(guó)國(guó)際地位的變化，國(guó)際社會(huì)頗有爭(zhēng)議。一些人樂(lè)見(jiàn)中國(guó)在過(guò)去的十年里不斷強(qiáng)大，但另一些人卻對(duì)中國(guó)的崛起感到擔(dān)憂。在一些西方國(guó)家，尤其是美國(guó)和英國(guó)，對(duì)中國(guó)的批評(píng)之聲不絕于耳，此類批評(píng)在法國(guó)、德國(guó)和波蘭要少一些，但還是煽動(dòng)了不少針對(duì)中國(guó)的敵意。

Well, I think that the last 10 years, they have changed significantly -- and in an irreversible way -- China’s international position. Now, China is one of the engines of the world economic development, but also a powerhouse in political and also military meaning without the consequences for the world and for the irreversibility of globalization. But what are the consequences? It is disputable. Some people are very happy that China has strengthen so much in the last 10 years, but some other people are very much concerned. You must be aware how much of criticism is in some Western countries, especially in the United States and the United Kingdom. I would say much less in France and Germany, also less in Poland, but that is also driving some hostility towards China.

在我看來(lái)，中國(guó)的對(duì)外政策不以擴(kuò)張為導(dǎo)向，而是從務(wù)實(shí)角度出發(fā)，著眼于對(duì)外政策如何能服務(wù)于中國(guó)發(fā)展大勢(shì)，維持中國(guó)的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。我認(rèn)為這是習(xí)近平主席提出全球矚目的“一帶一路”倡議的初心和第一推動(dòng)力?！耙粠б宦贰背h是中國(guó)近十年來(lái)推出的代表性合作框架。當(dāng)然，有人對(duì)這個(gè)倡議感到擔(dān)心甚至害怕，但我對(duì)其信任有加，還對(duì)其寄予厚望。

China’s international policy, as I think, oriented not for world expansion, but is run from a pragmatic viewpoint -- how external Chinese policies may contribute to sustaining the momentum, sustaining the social and economic development in China. That is also, I think, the driving force or founding cause of the Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative, which is making such an impression all over the world. So, the Belt and Road Initiative is one of the trademarks of the last 10 years, and again, somebody is concerned or even afraid of this initiative. I do not. I put some trust; I put down some hope in this initiative.

　　圖片來(lái)源：新華社

當(dāng)今世界面臨多重挑戰(zhàn)

主持人：

您認(rèn)為當(dāng)今全球經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨的主要挑戰(zhàn)是什么?

What are the main challenges the global economy faces today, in your opinion?

科沃德科：

挑戰(zhàn)多種多樣。當(dāng)前全球經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)瞬息萬(wàn)變。一條新聞即使今晚上網(wǎng)、次日登報(bào)，當(dāng)讀者最終看到它的時(shí)候，信息也有可能已經(jīng)過(guò)時(shí)了。當(dāng)我想寫一本論述全球化不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的書時(shí)，更是極其困難，因?yàn)檠罩g世界局勢(shì)就可能發(fā)生重大變化。只要看看俄烏沖突就知道了，兩國(guó)的軍事斗爭(zhēng)牽動(dòng)了眾多全球性問(wèn)題，引發(fā)了一系列非武力的間接博弈。很多國(guó)家，尤其是北約國(guó)家，正在為烏克蘭提供武器，戰(zhàn)事引發(fā)了全球能源危機(jī)和糧食供應(yīng)危機(jī)，進(jìn)而又將推動(dòng)這些國(guó)家采取經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激和人道主義移民政策。

You know, when we say there are challenges, there is plenty of them. The situation is indeed very dynamic. When your newspaper is to be printed online tonight or in paper tomorrow, there is also some kind of risk that your message can become obsolete when somebody will read it. But when you write a book on the irreversibility of globalization, as I do, it's extremely difficult because the situation changes sometimes very significantly on day-to-day basis. Just take a look into the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has engaged in non-military, non-directly fighting matters. So many countries, especially NATO, the countries of which are supplying Ukraine with weapons, which has the global consequences for the energy crisis, for the food supply crisis, which will fuel further their encouragement of economic and humanitarian driven migrations.

說(shuō)到移民問(wèn)題，這是當(dāng)今世界面臨的最大挑戰(zhàn)之一。大量非洲、中東和南亞移民涌入歐洲；從中南美洲和加勒比地區(qū)涌向美國(guó)的移民也與日俱增；各大洲內(nèi)部——非洲內(nèi)部，亞洲內(nèi)部的人口流動(dòng)規(guī)模也在擴(kuò)大。不可阻擋的國(guó)際人口的遷移正帶來(lái)一系列次生問(wèn)題。再說(shuō)安全問(wèn)題，各國(guó)似乎正展開(kāi)一場(chǎng)新軍備競(jìng)賽。還有經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題，我很關(guān)心全球經(jīng)濟(jì)如何重回發(fā)展軌道。還有通貨膨脹問(wèn)題。在中國(guó)或日本這樣的國(guó)家，通脹問(wèn)題尚不嚴(yán)重，但在大多數(shù)歐盟國(guó)家，在北美，在拉丁美洲，通脹問(wèn)題已十分嚴(yán)重，在俄羅斯和土耳其更甚。這一問(wèn)題的難點(diǎn)在于：如何能在緩解通脹的同時(shí)保證經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和就業(yè)率。更要引起重視的是：通貨膨脹、不平等、債務(wù)、貧困這些經(jīng)濟(jì)方面的問(wèn)題正在引發(fā)一系列政治問(wèn)題。

So, migration of the people who is one of the biggest challenge in the contemporary world. And this international migration of people is unstoppable and it is causing very many problems. we will see an influx of migrants from Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, to Europe. There will be more of them coming from Middle and South America and Caribbean islands through North America, especially to the United States. We will see also movement of the people within the continents, within Africa, within Asia, and it will be causing very many problems. The problem of security is a very big issue. The new military build-up spiral, and also the economic issues which are our economists’ concern, the getting momentum again, inflation. It is not that much of headache in countries like China or Japan. But it is a big problem in most of the European Union countries, in North America, in Latin America, much more, say, in Russia and in Turkey than in Spain or Italy. the question is how to counter inflation without causing recession and growing unemployment. And these problems on economic side -- inflation, inequality, public debt, poverty, they are causing several problems on the political side of the world.

從這個(gè)角度來(lái)看，目前的局勢(shì)不僅是有挑戰(zhàn)和困難這么簡(jiǎn)單，而是蘊(yùn)含著巨大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。要應(yīng)對(duì)上述問(wèn)題，我們不僅要建立起一套以專業(yè)知識(shí)為基礎(chǔ)的經(jīng)濟(jì)體系，更要以專業(yè)知識(shí)為基礎(chǔ)制定政策，構(gòu)建政治體系?，F(xiàn)在的很多政策過(guò)于感性，不是由理性驅(qū)動(dòng)的。因此，我主要關(guān)心的是，如何使不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的全球化——無(wú)論是經(jīng)濟(jì)還是政治領(lǐng)域的全球化，變得更加理性，以保持自全球化帶來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展勢(shì)頭仍然是促進(jìn)各國(guó)社會(huì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)和生態(tài)發(fā)展的積極因素。

And from this perspective, this situation is not only challenging and difficult. It is just risky. It calls for not only knowledge-based economy about which we are talking so much. It also calls for knowledge-based policies and politics. The politics is driven mostly by emotions, not by reason, not by rationality. So my main concern at the summer of 2022 is how to make irreversible globalization, both in economic and political sense, more rational, to sustain the momentum since globalization will be still a proactive factor in social, economic, and ecological development.

最后我們說(shuō)說(shuō)環(huán)境問(wèn)題，這并不是個(gè)新問(wèn)題。有人說(shuō)，關(guān)于保護(hù)自然環(huán)境，應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變暖的討論太多了。相關(guān)討論夠不夠多我不知道，但實(shí)際行動(dòng)肯定是不夠的。政治摩擦、軍事緊張、經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩等各種問(wèn)題，占據(jù)了各國(guó)政府——包括中國(guó)，但更主要是西歐、東歐還有北美國(guó)家太多的注意力，讓他們根本無(wú)暇顧及氣候變化這一關(guān)乎人類生存的挑戰(zhàn)。

And now you have the environment. That is nothing new. Somebody says that there's too much talking about protection of natural environment, counteracting warming of the climate. I'm not sure is it too much talking, but definitely there is not enough doing, and the political tensions, the military tensions, the other economic problems are driving, again, the attention of the policymakers -- I'm afraid that to some extent, maybe also in China, but to much bigger extent, say in Western Europe, Eastern Europe or North America -- from focusing on fighting the warming of the climate, which is the existential challenge for the future of the mankind.

　　圖片來(lái)源：新華社

美國(guó)挑起新冷戰(zhàn)非常危險(xiǎn)

主持人：

現(xiàn)在我們來(lái)談?wù)勚忻绬?wèn)題。您對(duì)美國(guó)最近對(duì)華政策的調(diào)整有何看法？

Now we're talking about the Sino-US problems. The United States is adjusting its policies towards China. What's your opinion on this?

科沃德科：

非常不看好。美國(guó)的舉動(dòng)令我深感不安。最讓我失望的要數(shù)拜登任職總統(tǒng)后的作為。特朗普黯然退場(chǎng)后，我還一度希望他的繼任者，也就是拜登，能夠叫停既有的仇中或反華政策。這些反華政策打著“讓美國(guó)再次偉大”的旗號(hào)重回保護(hù)主義，諸如此類，不過(guò)是美國(guó)式的妄自尊大。這是“第二次冷戰(zhàn)”。第一次冷戰(zhàn)在1989-1991年間就結(jié)束了，我們波蘭還為終結(jié)冷戰(zhàn)貢獻(xiàn)良多，但不幸的是，現(xiàn)如今新一輪冷戰(zhàn)又卷土重來(lái)，所以這是“第二次冷戰(zhàn)”——實(shí)際上我在八年前就有過(guò)這樣的說(shuō)法。新冷戰(zhàn)的發(fā)起方不是中國(guó)，也不是俄羅斯，而是美國(guó)。美國(guó)總統(tǒng)拜登正不遺余力地繼續(xù)新冷戰(zhàn)，某些國(guó)家還推波助瀾，尤其是像英國(guó)和一些歐盟小國(guó)。所以迄今為止，美國(guó)的頭號(hào)政敵就是中國(guó)。

Very negative. I'm very, very upset by the American behavior. My great disappointment is Joe Biden's presidency. I was putting some hope that when Mr Trump was driven out of the White House, his successor -- who turned to be Mr Biden -- will cease, will finish this Sinophobic or just anti-Chinese policy -- “Making America Great Again”, returning to protectionism, certain American megalomania, etc. This is the Second Cold War. The first was finished in 1989-1991, with great contribution of Poland. Unfortunately, now there is again the Cold War, so this is the Second Cold War. Actually, I used the term already eight years ago. It was initiated not by China, not by Russia. It was initiated by the United States, and it is being continued by American presidency, American State under the Biden presidency, with great support of some countries, like, for instance, especially the United Kingdom or some smaller countries in the European Union. So until recently, a number of political enemies of the US: number one was China.

誰(shuí)需要這場(chǎng)冷戰(zhàn)？這是個(gè)問(wèn)題。首先，需要這場(chǎng)冷戰(zhàn)的是軍工復(fù)合體及其在政界和媒體界的支持者。我們也因此被卷入到軍備競(jìng)賽之中。這是非常危險(xiǎn)的。這種危險(xiǎn)不僅來(lái)源于某種威脅、個(gè)別錯(cuò)誤或局部軍事沖突，還因?yàn)檫@是歷史性的失策。我認(rèn)為，如果不削減軍費(fèi)，那么應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變暖的努力將困難重重，甚至可以說(shuō)成功的希望十分渺茫。軍費(fèi)開(kāi)支十分昂貴，極其燒錢——而且燒的還是公款，是納稅人的錢和政府的錢。然而應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變暖也是道阻且長(zhǎng)，同樣成本高昂。那么，我們的錢從何處來(lái)呢？從削減教育或醫(yī)療保健方面的社會(huì)開(kāi)支中來(lái)嗎？那是無(wú)稽之談。從叫停與家庭生活和企業(yè)生產(chǎn)息息相關(guān)的那些基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目中來(lái)嗎？那也是無(wú)稽之談。要想實(shí)現(xiàn)聯(lián)合融資，落實(shí)私營(yíng)經(jīng)濟(jì)綠色轉(zhuǎn)型和可再生能源開(kāi)發(fā)的努力，我們唯一的資金來(lái)源是終止軍備競(jìng)賽，叫停并扭轉(zhuǎn)軍費(fèi)開(kāi)支的螺旋式上升——30年前我們就是這樣做的。

Who needs this Cold War? That's a question. Well, first of all, the military industrial complex, and their political and media supporters. So we've got involved in the military arms race. And this is very risky, not only because of a threat, of some mistake, and another military conflict of here or there. This is the historical blunder, because, make no mistake, listen to what I'm saying right now, it will be extremely difficult, if at all possible, to counter successfully warming of the climate without cutting military expenses. Military expenses are very costly, and they absorb money, our public money or taxpayer money or government's money. But fighting the warming of the climate is a long shot, and it is also very, very expensive. Therefore, where do we take the money from? From cutting the social expenses for education or healthcare? That would be nonsense. From stopping some of our infrastructure projects, which are needed for household and entrepreneurial sectors? That would be a nonsense. The only reservoir where there is the money to be taken off for co-financing, the private sector effort to shift to green economy and to develop renewable energy sources attempts, is to reverse the arms race, to stop and reverse the military spiral as we've done it 30 years ago.

主持人：

您認(rèn)為新冷戰(zhàn)有和平解決方案嗎?

Is there a peaceful solution for the New Cold War?

科沃德科：

如何結(jié)束這場(chǎng)新冷戰(zhàn)呢？我對(duì)美國(guó)現(xiàn)任領(lǐng)導(dǎo)班子和北約那些主要成員國(guó)已經(jīng)不抱什么期望了，他們不會(huì)在這方面出多少力的。倒是中國(guó)釋放的一些信號(hào)或許能夠極大地鼓舞人心。讓我們澆滅對(duì)第二次冷戰(zhàn)的狂熱吧，讓我們嘗試攜手再現(xiàn)30年前的義舉。讓我們把軍費(fèi)削減三分之一，而非擴(kuò)張三分之一。否則，人們會(huì)陷入饑餓困境，會(huì)面臨生存危機(jī)，會(huì)上街示威斗爭(zhēng)。那樣一來(lái)，我們會(huì)成為歷史的罪人，作為始作俑者的當(dāng)今相關(guān)國(guó)家的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層就該遭到譴責(zé)。因?yàn)檫@些問(wèn)題不是天災(zāi)而是人禍，它們不由客觀外力引起，而是決策錯(cuò)誤所致。不過(guò)，病根雖然找到了，但治療卻尚未跟上。也就是說(shuō)，問(wèn)題都是有解的，但言而不行，解決方案就是紙上談兵，問(wèn)題也不必然會(huì)得到解決。當(dāng)然，解決問(wèn)題的可能性還是有的，所以我們?nèi)杂欣碛杀３謽?lè)觀。

So how to end this Cold War? I don't expect any significant effort in this direction from the current leadership of the United States and the crucial NATO members. So maybe some signal from Beijing. Maybe some. That will be very, very encouraging. Let's stop this craziness with Second Cold War. Let's try to do jointly, together something similar to what has been done three decades ago. And let's cut the military expenses by one-third. Don't increase them by one-third, because otherwise, people will be hungry. People will be dying. People will be on our streets fighting and demonstrating against such irreality. And we will be blamed. And who else supposed to be blamed is now the leadership which is causing the problems. They are not caused by nature. They are not caused by external objective factors. They are caused by policy mistakes. And there is a diagnosis, but there's not yet a therapy. So now, all the problems we are talking about are solvable. There is a solution, but it does not imply that we are on the path to solve them. And that does not imply that they will be solved. But they may be solved, and that's some reason for optimism.

　　圖片來(lái)源：東方IC

中歐應(yīng)攜手推動(dòng)地區(qū)發(fā)展

主持人：

您如何評(píng)價(jià)當(dāng)前中國(guó)與波蘭的關(guān)系?

How would you describe the Sino-Polish relations today?

科沃德科：

波中關(guān)系很不錯(cuò)，特別是相較歐盟其他國(guó)家和北約成員國(guó)與中國(guó)的關(guān)系而言，波中關(guān)系可以說(shuō)是非常好了。盡管西方和中國(guó)之間存在貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，但波中貿(mào)易一直在發(fā)展。

They are good, relatively very good if you compare our relations with the relations between some other EU and NATO members with China. Our trade, despite the trade war between the West and China, trade terms are always growing.

而且我要著重明確和強(qiáng)調(diào)的是，我們波蘭不是被美國(guó)、北約的鷹派政客和反華陣營(yíng)牽著鼻子走的。在波蘭不存在英美政界的“恐華癥”，相反，中國(guó)的文化、自然、經(jīng)濟(jì)等等，都激發(fā)了波蘭人民的興趣和共情。就此而言，波蘭可以在改善歐洲與中國(guó)，或歐亞與中國(guó)的關(guān)系中發(fā)揮重要作用。我們不妨看看西方——主要是英美的某些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家、知識(shí)分子、智庫(kù)和政客的論調(diào)。他們?cè)O(shè)想了一個(gè)割裂的未來(lái)世界，世界地圖被一分為二，一邊是由美國(guó)和歐盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的西方，另一邊是由中國(guó)和俄羅斯領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的東方——注意這里的次序，是中國(guó)和俄羅斯，不是俄羅斯和中國(guó)。而且英美可能借經(jīng)濟(jì)手段，甚至軍事震懾，將其他國(guó)家強(qiáng)行劃入這兩個(gè)陣營(yíng)。

And Poland, which I want to emphasize significantly and clearly, we were not driven by Americans, by the US, by the hawkish politicians of NATO and anti-Chinese camp. There is no Sinophobia in Poland as it is in some political circles in Britain or the United States. There is rather plenty of interest and sympathy towards China's culture, China's nature, China's economy, and so on. So from this perspective, Poland may play an important role and be a significant factor in the improvement of European or Eurasian relations with China. Take a look, for instance, the economists, some intellectuals, some think tanks, and of course the politicians of the West. Again, first of all, Americans and British. They are envisioning the future of the world as splitted, this map in two blocks -- one, West led by the United States and European Union, and second, East led by China and Russia --This time in this sequence, China and Russia, not Russia and China.

而我的愿景和主張與他們不同。展望未來(lái)，我不將世界看作由美國(guó)和中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的兩個(gè)敵對(duì)板塊，而是將其視為歐亞大陸與歐洲-大西洋兩部分。那么你看，歐洲同時(shí)存在于這兩部分中。一方面，我們屬于歐洲-大西洋板塊，是經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化、政治共同體和北約軍事聯(lián)盟的一部分。但另一方面，我們也是歐亞大陸的一員。波蘭在這兩個(gè)方面的地位都非常特殊，因?yàn)樵谀撤N意義上，我們處于東西方的交界處。

And there may be economic facility and even sometime they may use some military leverage to bring into these two blocks the other countries from all over the world. My vision, my proposition is different. Instead of driving, going and visioning the world in the future as two hostile blocks led by the US and China, I'm saying that it can consist of two parts, Eurasia, and Euro-Atlantic. Take a look, Europe is in both. We are part of Euro-Atlantic structure, economic integration, political mutual ground, military alliance of NATO, etc. But we are also a member, part of Eurasia. And Poland is a very specific country in both, because we are at the border between West and East in some sense.

因此我建議，對(duì)于像“下一代歐盟”復(fù)興計(jì)劃、中國(guó)的“一帶一路”倡議和“16+1”機(jī)制這些涉及基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資的項(xiàng)目，中歐雙方與其相互競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，不如讓來(lái)自歐盟委員會(huì)和中國(guó)政府的專家心平氣和地坐下來(lái)，務(wù)實(shí)磋商如何將后疫情時(shí)代的“下一代歐盟”復(fù)興計(jì)劃與“一帶一路”倡議框架下的“16+1”合作機(jī)制這兩個(gè)偉大的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施計(jì)劃相結(jié)合，用以改善中東歐國(guó)家的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，推動(dòng)地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，促進(jìn)貿(mào)易往來(lái)、經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化、合作共贏與兼容并包的全球化進(jìn)展提質(zhì)增效，這符合中歐雙方的共同利益。我想再次申明，對(duì)于我們現(xiàn)在談?wù)摰乃羞@些挑戰(zhàn)，都存在解決之法，但可惜的是，我們尚未真正開(kāi)始著手解決這些問(wèn)題，這一點(diǎn)值得注意。

So therefore, instead of competing, say, between infrastructure investment projects, Next Generation of the European Union, and Belt and Road Initiative, “16+1” of China, I would propose that, for instance, experts from European Commission and from Chinese government sit down at the table and pragmatically negotiate how to combine these two great infrastructure programs, Next Generation of European Union in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and “16+1” within Belt and Road Initiative to improve the infrastructure of East-Central European economies to contribute to their development and to make the trade, the economic integration, the win-win, the inclusive globalization which is very much an interest of both China and Europe, more efficient. One more time, all these challenges we are talking about, they do have the solution. But unfortunately, we are not yet on the way, on the road to solve these problems. You must be very careful.

主持人：

今年，中國(guó)共產(chǎn)黨第二十次全國(guó)代表大會(huì)將在北京召開(kāi)，您對(duì)此有何期待？

The 20th National Congress of the CPC will convene in Beijing this year. What is your expectation for the meeting?

科沃德科：

我期待中國(guó)共產(chǎn)黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人能夠妥善應(yīng)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外的挑戰(zhàn)，在處理好國(guó)內(nèi)問(wèn)題的同時(shí)，兼顧對(duì)外立場(chǎng)。我希望中共二十大的一大成就將是，中國(guó)的外交官、知識(shí)分子、媒體、政治家能夠增信釋疑，讓我們這些身處世界其他地區(qū)的人們了解真正的中國(guó)議程和中國(guó)目標(biāo)，讓我們相信中國(guó)政府不僅代表著中國(guó)人民，還會(huì)對(duì)中國(guó)之外的人民展現(xiàn)負(fù)責(zé)任大國(guó)的形象，承擔(dān)起共同的責(zé)任。在這一點(diǎn)上，事實(shí)勝于雄辯。中國(guó)必須證明其不具有侵略性，中國(guó)不會(huì)攻擊任何人，而是樂(lè)于并致力于與所有人合作，只要這些人能以開(kāi)放的心態(tài)促進(jìn)對(duì)華關(guān)系。這是中國(guó)可以做到的，也是應(yīng)該做的。中國(guó)真的做得到嗎？讓我們拭目以待。

I expect that China's ruling party leaders will correctly address the domestic and international challenges and will find an answer how to address the domestic problems in a compatible way with external position of China. I think that it will be an achievement if in the aftermath of the Congress of the Communist Party, your diplomacy, your intellectuals, your media, your politicians, will be capable to convince us in the remaining parts of the world about the true Chinese agenda, aims, targets, and to convince the people China is indeed working not only on behalf of the Chinese people which is obvious but with the accountability, responsibility or co-responsibility for the people elsewhere. So more deeds, less words. China must prove that China is not assaultive, that China is not going to attack anybody else, but is ready and committed to cooperate with everybody else if this everybody will be open for further development of relations with China. That may happen. That should happen. Will it happen? Let's wait and see.

主持人：

您對(duì)中國(guó)的未來(lái)有何展望？

So what is your foresee about China's future?

科沃德科：

我對(duì)中國(guó)的看法很積極。不過(guò)正如我多次提及的，中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)會(huì)放緩，但中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)能夠避免“硬著陸”。即便是就目前的市場(chǎng)匯率而非購(gòu)買力平價(jià)而言，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)體量超越美國(guó)也是指日可待。中國(guó)人口老齡化日益加重，這將成為一大挑戰(zhàn)。老齡化現(xiàn)象其實(shí)在日本、在西歐、在德國(guó)、波蘭、在歐盟的27個(gè)國(guó)家都是個(gè)挑戰(zhàn)。此外，我還希望中國(guó)不要卷入任何外部沖突，我希望中國(guó)的國(guó)際影響力只是通過(guò)和平的途徑、以經(jīng)濟(jì)影響力的形式在世界范圍內(nèi)發(fā)揮作用。對(duì)全球可持續(xù)發(fā)展而言，中國(guó)仍是機(jī)會(huì)，而非威脅。這就是我對(duì)于未來(lái)的期待。

Positive. But as I said several times, economic growth would be slower. China is able to avoid so-called hard landing. China's economy will be soon bigger than American even on the current exchange rate basis, not on the power purchasing parity. China's society will be aging, which will be growing challenge for China, as they have already seen in Japan or we in Western Europe, in Germany, in Poland, and in actually each 27 countries of the European Union. And I hope that China will not get involved in any external conflict, that China’s international significance will be only filled in a peaceful and economic influence manner all over the world. China will remain a chance for the world's sustainable development, not a threat. These are my expectations for the forthcoming future.

　　圖片來(lái)源：視覺(jué)中國(guó)

出品人：王浩

監(jiān)制：柯榮誼 宋平

制片：張少偉

記者：沈一鳴 栗思月 欒瑞英 張釗 劉夏

實(shí)習(xí)生：呂文祎 王博麟 楊恒瑞 袁嘉憶

中國(guó)觀察智庫(kù)

中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)新媒體中心

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